Simulations and Visualizations of Violent, Tornado-Producing Supercell Thunderstorms

Notes / errata: This talk is Leigh Orf's presentation at the 2023 Steamboat Weather Summit in Steamboat Springs, CO. Link to my 2018 Weather Summit presentation: /watch/0aclSP8VgFNVl 1:37 Actually I was 5, my sister was 4. Later on I'll also forget how old I am. Turns out I was 54 when I gave this talk. 3:20 Mrs LePage's age isn't 80, it's her street addresss 3:42 Excellent page on Widsor Locks Tornado: https://www.tornadotalk.com/windsor-ct-f4-tornado-october-3-1979/ 4:10 Riley, G. T., and L. F. Bosart, 1987: The Windsor Locks, Connecticut Tornado of 3 October 1979: An Analysis of an Intermittent Severe Weather Event. Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1655–1677, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/115/8/1520-0493_1987_115_1655_twlcto_2_0_co_2.xml 6:12 "Study of a Numerically Modeled Storm": https://mediaspace.illinois.edu/media/Study+ of+%20a+Numerically+Modeled+Severe+Storm/1_dnby2rlw 6:50 More about the Wisconsin Model Engine here: /watch/981=t?kw9CJamPxNLP= 7:36 DFW Flight 191 accident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines_Flight_191 8:10 PoVRay Persists!! http://www.povray.org/ 9:00 Orf, L., R. Wilhelmson, B. Lee, C. Finley, and A. Houston, 2017: Evolution of a Long-Track Violent Tornado within a Simulated Supercell. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 45–68, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00073.1 . 9:07 NCAR's VAPOR software and recent publication about VAPOR: https://www.vapor.ucar.edu , https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100578 9:26 Recent SVC observational / modeling papers: Murdzek, S. S., P. M. Markowski, and Y. P. Richardson, 2020: Simultaneous Dual-Doppler and Mobile Mesonet Observations of Streamwise Vorticity Currents in Three Supercells. Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 4859–4874, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0239.1 . Schueth, A., C. Weiss, and J. M. L. Dahl, 2021: Comparing Observations and Simulations of the Streamwise Vorticity Current and the Forward Flank Convergence Boundary in a Supercell Storm. Monthly Weather Review, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-20-0251.1 . Finley, C. A., M. Elmore, L. Orf, and B. D. Lee, 2022: Impact of the streamwise vorticity current on low‐level mesocyclone development in a simulated supercell. Geophys. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100005 . 9:27 TORUS: https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/torus/ 10:32 About the El Reno 2011 event: https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-20110524 11:14 Pecos Hank's Channel: /@ PecosHank Two Schyma/Orf videos and some more educational materials found here: http://orf.media/education/ 12:54 Sam Smith's scary tornado experience /watch/Es5RKH2JqEOJR 14:12 Vortex stretching: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vortex_stretching 16:03 Brandon Clement https://twitter.com/bclemms and Brian Emfinger https://brianemfinger.com/ 18:55 Reed Timmer Andover tornado drone footage /watch/MgMYn8hFdxlFY 20:50 Frontera Supercomputer https://www.tacc.utexas.edu/systems/frontera 21:00 Blue Waters Supercomputer https://www.ncsa.illinois.edu/research/project-highlights/blue-waters/ 21:15 The text on the screen is correct, but I incorrectly state "Mayfield" 3x when I meant "Fairdale". 21:55 O’Neill, M. E., L. Orf, G. M. Heymsfield, and K. Halbert, 2021: Hydraulic jump dynamics above supercell thunderstorms. Science, 373, 1248–1251, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abh3857 . 23:45 "For reasons I'll explain in a minute" (but never did): Lots of links here: http://orf.media/aacp/ . Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas and a moister stratosphere (due to sublimation of injected AACP cloud ice crystals) likely means more downward infrared emissions, i.e., more of a global warming signal. 29:31 Wobbling/wubbling explained here: /watch/AsOrexECD2GCr 32:00 Some more about tornadogenesis in the 10 meter simulation: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100578 45:56 FastEddy: https://ral.ucar.edu/solutions/products/fasteddy 54:40 When I use the word "theory" repeatedly, I am using it in the more colloquial sense; I understand the difference between "hypothesis" and "theory" :)

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